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May 18, 2012  
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Friday's Market Comment  
Ukrainian stocks tumbled again on Thursday as equities globally continued to be hit by fear that Greek debt woes could spread and about Spain’s banking system. The WIG-Ukraine index plummeted 5.4% (-13.8% over the last five sessions), with all but two index components lower. The worst performers were Agroton (AGT PW) -10.1%, and Kernel (KER PW) -7.8%. We believe Kernel’s poor 3Q results, the broad market weakness and 9% month-to-day zloty devaluation vs. USD create a perfect entry point into the stock and upgraded our recommendation on Kernel yesterday to BUY. Meanwhile, the story was much the same on the local Ukrainian Exchange, which fell 2.4% (-8.5% over the last five sessions), and also only two index stocks posted slight gains. The day’s biggest losers were Yenakiieve Steel (ENMZ UK) -7.7% and Ukrnafta (UNAF UK) -5.7%. Ukrainian equities in London were also tagged, with Cadogan Petroleum (CAD LN) shedding 8.5% and Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) putting off 6.3%.


Current events

18.05.2012 Industry flat yoy, retail trade buoyant in April
Monthly industrial production in Ukraine was flat yoy in April, recovering from negative territory in March (-1.1% yoy) and taking 4M12 growth to a mere 0.7% yoy, UkrStat reported yesterday.  more


18.05.2012 Ukrproduct plans to buy back up to 22% of shares
Ukrproduct (UKR LN) issued a notice of AGM to be held on June 7, 2012 that includes approval of a program to buy back up to 9.0 mln shares out of 40.8 mln outstanding.  more


17.05.2012 MHP ups 1Q12 EBITDA 1.5x yoy
MHP (MHPC LI), Ukraine’s leading poultry and agro producer, reported 1Q12 financials this morning.  more


17.05.2012 KDD sells Sky Towers project
KDD Group (KDDG LN) announced yesterday it agreed to sell its subsidiary Taccadero Trading Limited to Cimbrorum Holding LLC for a total consideration of USD 202 mln.  more


17.05.2012 Kyiv appeals court upholds Lutsenko sentence
Yesterday the Kyiv Court of Appeals upheld a guilty verdict handed down by a Kyiv district court against former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, who was sentenced in February to four years in jail for abuse of office.  more


17.05.2012 European Commission names Pole to head delegation in Ukraine
The European Commission announced yesterday that Jan Tombinski will head the EU delegation in Ukraine.  more


16.05.2012 Kernel EBITDA falls in 3Q FY12 on trading margin decline
Kernel (KER PW) reported its 3Q FY12 financials for the three months ended March 31, 2012 yesterday after market close. Revenues increased 16% yoy to USD 599 mln, EBITDA declined 31% yoy to USD 62.5 mln and net profit fell 52% yoy to USD 37.2 mln.  more


16.05.2012 Motor Sich restarts talks on Ansat engines
Motor Sich (MSICH UK) renewed negotiations with Russian Helicopters to supply its MS-500V engines for the light Ansat helicopter, Motor Sich’s CEO said yesterday (via Interfax).  more


16.05.2012 JKX reports decline in production in 1Q12, project start in Russia
JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) reported yesterday its 1Q12 production averaged 7,330 boepd (-18% yoy), including 7,000 boepd (-15% yoy) in Ukraine.  more


16.05.2012 KSG Agro reveals 5x assets increase over 2011
KSG Agro (KSG PW) reported its unaudited 1Q12 financials yesterday. Revenues were up 6x yoy to USD 4.6 mln, and operating profit increased to USD 2.4 mln in 1Q12 from USD 1.5 mln a year ago.  more

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17.05.2012 Close 1 day, % 52 wk, %
UX 1,115.51 -25.00 -571.9
PFTS 436.39 -27.55 -24.9
RTS 1,300.21 -9.39 -165.1
MSCI EM 924.26 -2.91 -12.9
Dow Jones 12,442.57 5.48 -11,203.5
S&P 500 1,307.28 7.54 15.9
NASDAQ 100 2,514.00 11.54 120.4
FTSE 100 5,338.38 1.65 -481.9
Nikkei 225 8,715.00 4.39 -1,711.7
DAX Index 6,308.96 11.64 -1,187.5
HSI 19,200.93 5.35 -5,379.9
USD / EUR / UAHMarket Close
17.05.2012 Bid Ask 1 day, % 52 wk, %
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